Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Week 5 assignment 4-Fiscal policy

Within the walls of each country’s political domain there is a mechanism that drives the policy framework, money. The fiscal policy of individual governments helps ensure the policy decisions that are being made. Adolino & Blake state, “Fiscal policy is perhaps the most fundamental macroeconomic policy pursued by governments,” (Adolino & Blake, 2010, pp. 159). Let us focus upon the United States, historically, and within the context of the past decade between 2000-2010. According to Adolino & Blake, “…the United States has a decidedly pluralist fiscal policy process,” (pp. 169). Adolino & Blake continue their analysis by developing the idea that United States fiscal policy not only rests upon Constitutional doctrines, but upon executive-legislative relations (pp. 169). The governmental structure in the United States becomes the machine within which policy formulation and fiscal decisions are developed and produced (pp. 169). Our neighbor to the south, Mexico, is entering its bicentennial anniversary this month and is capitalizing on growth within its fiscal sectors, but amid a revolving crisis of crime at war type levels. According to Angel Gurria, in Supporting Fiscal Policy in Mexico for a Strong and Sustainable Recovery, online at Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development , Mexico is following trends that will strengthen its fiscal structures, “Our analysis starts by acknowledging the undeniable progress Mexico has made in terms of expenditure formulation, approval and execution, in line with international practices. Important legislation has been passed since 2006, particularly in the federal budget and fiscal responsibility law (LFPRH) (leading to the balanced budget rule and the 2007 Tax Reform, which focused on ways of strengthening fiscal responsibility and transparency, and, lastly, the 2008 General Fiscal Accounting Law),” (Gurria, 2010). Furthermore, Gurria explains that the fiscal policies of the past have not been successful and amid further crisis new reforms need to be enacted (Gurria, 2010). Finally Gurria states, “This time, in the context of a fragile economic recovery, we hope that all political players are now convinced of the need to provide the Mexican State with sufficient resources to grow and overcome its social deficits,” (Gurria, 2010).

In order to review the fiscal policy of these two countries we must analyze a current similarity and the attention to fiscal policy this issue has received and how much impact it has upon the socioeconomic agenda within the countries. “The inauguration of George W. Bush in January 2001 placed tax cuts firmly on the institutional agenda while fiscal conservatism took a back seat…,” (pp. 171). The bush administration planned to cut taxes and invest in defense, the economic outlooks of the early 2000’s helped to increase spending cutting into the surplus that was in place; now a deficit was evident (pp. 171). More importantly as the war in Iraq and Afghanistan continue to date, there is an impact that has been evident created by the executive-legislative decision making-process in the United States. Adolino & Blake state, “Preliminary estimates for 2008 said that the deficit would exceed 5 percent of the GDP as the country entered a recession,” (pp. 173). With the new administration of Barack Obama and the continual economic problems facing the United States we see how executive-legislative decisions impact the fiscal climate, “Barack Obama’s transition team discussed proposals for an additional spending package designed to reactivate the economy and avoid further financial panic,” (pp. 173). Adolino & Blake further demonstrate how fiscal policy is affected through the relationship between executive order and the legislative process (pp. 173). So where does Mexico compare to the United States? Well, the similarities always exist because, although Mexico and the United States are sovereign states and create solidarity within their governmental structures, the unique framework of the open-market system always joins them and links the countries by a bond to create commonalities, and feasible structures of interdependent relationships; within fiscal policy they mirror each other in execution and investment. Currently, the Mexican crisis lies within the crime and drug wars being played out all across the country, not war per say, but a heavy battle within its own infrastructure, that requires very careful fiscal and social policy attention. As found in the New York Times article, by Enrique Krauze, In Mexico, A War Every Century,

"Today, a handful of powerful criminal groups has unleashed a blood-soaked and utterly illegitimate wave of violence against the Mexican government and Mexican society. This “war,” which rages in too many cities and states of my country, has created a truly Hobbesian situation of human brutality," (Krauze, 2010).

As outlined in article there is a new frontier that faces Mexican diplomacy and fiscal management, that which the country must create economic reforms that instill growth, openness, and design efficient outcomes. Krauze states, “This war, though, will have to be won — and economic growth will have to be revivified — within the rules of democracy,” (Krauze, 2010).

Both countries have futures that will need to captivate new policy designs that address the wars they battle, while actively and efficiently creating a fiscal model that drives governmental relationships and commitments to its constituencies.

Adolino, Jessica R. & Blake, Charles H. (2010). Comparing Public Policies: Issues and Choices in Industrialized Countries. Washington D.C.: CQ Press

Gurria, Angel (January 7, 2010). Supporting Fiscal Policy in Mexico for a Strong and Sustainable Recovery. Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development. Retrieved from http://www.oecd.org/document/1/0,3343,en_2649_37405_44362433_1_1_1_1,00.html

Krauze, Enrique (September 14, 2010). In Mexico, a War Every Century. New York Times. Retrieved from: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/15/opinion/15krauze.html?_r=1&hp

5 comments:

  1. Fabian, thank you for your post. After reading it I am still curious to know in what ways specifically will the wars that the US (Afghanistan) and Mexico (Drug and Crime) affect future policy decisions?
    The war in Mexico has had devastating effects on it’s market including increased impoverishment and migration of workers to North of the border. It has been the topic of many ongoing debacles that involve the US and Mexico border. What would be required from both nations (very broad sense) to collectively work to eliminate the financial implications of these wars on one another’s economy? In essence how can we hep Mexico to help ourselves?
    Additionally how does this relate to the proposed conditions of the NAFTA agreement?It appears that the provisions have not come to fruition and there has been a lag in the promising “boost” it held for all three countries in North America.

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  2. You bring up some interesting points here. Although I'm not exactly sure that you are comparing fiscal policies, you do bring up some ideas that are important to consider regarding fiscal planning priorities for Mexico and the U.S.

    Agreed. The U.S. and Mexico are both fighting their own wars, but these wars are also inter-connected. The border wars have created havoc for Mexican society, their economy, and their government, and as a result, it has brought increased drug trafficking here in the U.S. A few years ago, we also made it legal to buy and sell semi-automatic weapons, which interestingly corresponded with the increase in gun violence that occurred in Mexico. We are two countries whose policy decisions affect each other greatly.

    But the question to ask regarding fiscal policy is… why is this happening in Mexico? Are the taxes in Mexico too high for the citizens or not high enough? Is the government spending enough? What type of fiscal policy is in place to promote job growth, because apparently there aren’t many if joining cartels or sending back remittances are viable options for many. The peso is devalued, and unemployment is high. Because we are so close in proximity, we really do need to work closely together when planning our fiscal/tax policies.

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  3. Fabian,

    Just some thoughts to add to your exposition.

    In 2006 the OECD concluded the Mexican government “spends too much on current consumption, including public wages, at the expense of investment.” The organization predicted that “This would reduce growth potential and increase the burden on future generations. Further, “Too much of the increase in public receipts from rising oil prices is spent on current consumption items rather than on investment; oil wealth being the property of both current and future generations.” With a global economic recession upon them and oil prices retreating from mid – decade highs, Mexico's 2011 budget proposal promises to reduce the deficit though fiscal reforms. This though potentially tax broadening reforms are absent from the economic package.

    Finance Minister Ernesto Cordero continues to resist tax policy changes which include reducing the value-added tax to 15% from 16%, rather preferring to seek reductions in governmental and institutional personal service, operational, and administrative spending. The current budget package includes proposed spending of 3.35 trillion pesos, up 3.9% from 2010, and a deficit of 0.3% of GDP, excluding Pemex investment. The total deficit is projected to fall to 2.3% of GDP, down from 2.7% in 2010. According to Cordero this should result in job creation in the range of 550,000 to 650,000. The ministry projects an exchange rate of 12.9 pesos to the dollar. Growth is estimated at 3.8% GDP from 4.5% this year.

    Though the U.S. economy has been in recovery mode for roughly a year, it is hamstringed by approximately $13.3 trillion in national debt. That debt is projected to grow by at least $1.5 trillion a year into the foreseeable future, with interest on the debt mounting to more than $500 billion per year. The national debt represents about 52% of the U.S.’s gross domestic product. The official U.S. unemployment number is 9.6%, but that figure does not include those who no longer are looking for work and who are working at part-time jobs but desire full-time ones. If they are counted, the figure grows to 17%. While the U.S. can anticipate deficits for the foreseeable future, Cordero expects the budget of Mexico to reach balance by 2012.


    http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2010-09-15.html

    http://imarketnews.com/node/19019

    Thanks for your 'blog'!

    Wendell

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  4. Although your discussion of rampant organized crime and its effect on Mexican governing are right on target, what often goes unnoticed is the repercussions of this allocation of resources.

    The recently proposed policy in Mexico is largely reliant on global oil prices and focused on security-measures, as you mentioned. Mexican analysts conclude that, "Mexico needs to increase spending on security in order to train more policemen, fight corruption and more effectively take on drug cartels that pose a threat to governability"[1].

    Because Mexican fiscal policy is currently responding to security threats, it is not focused on necessary infrastructure and social programs desperately needed around the country. This has direct effect on US tax revenue distribution as more and more Mexican nationals leave the country to seek the educational, health and living standards that their government does not provide here in the US.


    [1]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-09/calderon-pushes-conservative-budget-as-mexico-opposition-seeks-tax-cut.html

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  5. Wow

    Thanks for all the comments! Yes I did think about the NAFTA agreements, but that is a whole other exploration of policy. I hoep that at least I just raised some attention to the fact that These wars that affcet each conuntry separtely do impact the fiscal agenda in many ways, very deep ways.

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